For the second consecutive year, heavy summer rainfall led to major flooding in Vermont, inundating homes, infrastructure and the very soil beneath our feet.
Waterlogged soil can interrupt the normal oxygen and carbon dioxide exchange for trees, weaken root systems and even introduce dangerous pathogens.
But how might it affect the vibrancy and color of Vermont's autumn leaves?
Vermont Public's Mary Williams Engisch welcomes back Josh Halman, the forest health lead at the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation, who shares insight into this year's fall foliage forecast. This interview was produced for the ear. We highly recommend listening to the audio. We’ve also provided a transcript, which has been edited for length and clarity.
Mary Williams Engisch: What factors do you dig into when you're analyzing what kind of foliage season Vermonters can expect?
Josh Halman: Well, you intro'd with some important information there about rainfall and moisture, and that's certainly something that we keep an eye on. Another thing, obviously, is whether we're in drought or not. And luckily, we're not in drought right now, but those moisture levels are pretty important for forecasting what the foliage will look like in the fall.
"For the vast majority of trees, especially in the forested settings, they look really good this year. "Josh Halman, Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation
Mary Williams Engisch: And you've shared with us before, too, that each year you get to survey Vermont forests from an airplane. Have you done that this year?
Josh Halman: Yeah, we flew the whole state this year, and finished in August this year, which was great. And in general, the foliage looked really good throughout the state. We didn't have any major defoliation outbreaks or insect defoliators.
So we've had really good hardwood canopy that's out there right now, and so the leaves look very good going into the fall.
Mary Williams Engisch: Excellent — talk a little bit more about that. What can Vermonters expect as we head deeper into the fall months?
Josh Halman: What we've seen from the air, at least, was that, again, the foliage looks very healthy throughout the state. We did have, as you mentioned, quite a bit of rainfall this summer — much like last year. One difference that we've seen in the foliage, though, is that last year, maple species were pretty affected by foliar pathogens: fungi that were in the leaves that made the color look maybe just a little bit different than it normally does. We have not seen that be quite so widespread this year in the state, which is really good news for foliage.
We've seen some fungal damage in other species. You might have seen some birch and some aspens, kind of on the roadsides really, that you've seen some brown foliage, and they might have dropped leaves early. But, for the vast majority of trees, especially in the forested settings, they look really good this year.
"Probably the end of September into early October is when we really expect peak to hit here. It's kind of the typical timing for it in Vermont."Josh Halman, Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation
Mary Williams Engisch: I'm also just starting to see the bright, orangey yellows on smaller maple trees in the woods right behind my house. When will we start to see more of those different trees and leaves shift? What sort of timeline should people be thinking about?
Josh Halman: Well, you hit it right on the head there. Some trees are starting right now. From here through the end of September is when they're, kind of, going through that first transition.
Probably the end of September into early October is when we really expect peak to hit here. It's kind of the typical timing for it in Vermont. And we don't really have any information to suggest that it would be any different than that this year.
Mary Williams Engisch: Scientists are saying extreme weather events, like the ones we've experienced for the past couple of years with those heavy rainfall events, are becoming more common — climate change, continuing. Looking forward, how will that affect Vermont's autumn foliage?
Josh Halman: It's a little unpredictable of how that can impact fall foliage from year to year. One thing that we do know, is that something that can obviously impact how long we have fall foliage around are extreme rainstorms and wind storms. And so, when you have leaves that are transitioning to where they're ultimately going to be dropping the leaves anyway, if you have heavy wind storms or rains that come down, that's obviously going to expedite that process, and you might have a shorter season. It's a little hard to predict that this far out, but that can definitely have an impact on foliage.
Mary Williams Engisch: Anything else you want to make sure you share with folks who are going to head out to start leaf peeping?
Josh Halman: I'd just say that, right now, at least the short-term forecast, has some bright days ahead of us and slightly cooler nights — not as cold as they might normally be in September.
But that kind of combination is setting us up for some really good foliage viewing this fall. So, it should be an exciting time.
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