There's a bird flu worst-case scenario that Dr. Mark Levine, the head of Vermont’s Department of Health, described to state lawmakers this week.
In that hypothetical worst case, the virus that causes bird flu infects someone who is sick with the human flu in Vermont. Those two viruses exchange some genetic material. The bird flu virus picks up genes that allow it to easily spread between people. Another pandemic ensues.
“You can call it science fiction or science, but it is something that is potential, but we have not seen at this point,” Levine said.
There's a lot the state and federal government is doing to prevent that scenario, Levine explained at a presentation at the Statehouse this week.
Right now, bird flu presents a very low risk to humans because most people who’ve gotten sick from the virus have been in direct contact with infected farm animals.
“There has been no evidence of person-to-person spread of this virus,” New Hampshire state epidemiologist Dr. Benjamin Chan told NHPR last week.
The fear of bird flu mutating and becoming capable of spreading between people comes at the peak of a busy flu season and as bird flu is circulating in wild and domestic birds alike: Mallards in Rutland tested positive for bird flu in recent weeks, along with backyard flocks in Swanton and Windsor, according to Levine.
To monitor for bird flu on dairy farms, the state started testing raw milk from farms once a month. Animals sold across state lines have to be tested. And in recent weeks, the health department started testing viral samples from every hospitalized flu patient in the state.
That’s an early surveillance measure “to make sure they only have human flu and don’t have any avian flu floating around in their system,” Levine told lawmakers.
He said one of the best ways to prevent his worst-case scenario is to limit how many people are sick with the flu through vaccination.
“We are not succeeding in that effort,” Levine said.
The health department held over 50 vaccine clinics at farms this fall.
But statewide vaccination rates are lower than normal: 34% of Vermonters received a flu vaccine this season, compared to an average of 40% in the past three years.
“We have a frankly lousy vaccination rate,” Levine said.
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