Vermont-specific computer modeling unveiled by the Scott administration Thursday shows that the state might not have enough intensive care beds or ventilators to treat patients during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Read the full modeling report here.
The “likeliest case” scenario for COVID-19 infections forecasts a peak need for 211 ICU beds,76 more than the state has on hand now. It also projects the need for 114 ventilators — hospitals currently have 93 in stock, according to the administration.
The modeling projects that the peak will come in late April or early May.
Commissioner of Financial Regulation Michael Pieciak, who’s been overseeing the COVID-19 modeling for the administration, said Thursday that the forecast “is not representative of definitive outcomes.”
He added, however, that the numbers will help the health care system prepare for the influx.
"Hospitals have to be asked, have been asked, to plan to surge well beyond their existing capacity." — Mike Smith, Secretary of Human Services
“What we’re drilling down on is: What does that mean for how many staffed beds will we need? What does that mean for how many ICUs will we potentially need? And what does that mean for how many ventilators we will possibly need?” Pieciak said.
The worst-case scenarios forecast by the state’s modeling paint a much grimmer picture for Vermont hospitals and the patients they may not be able to treat if that scenario plays out.
Vermont would see a peak need for 1,046 ICU beds sometime in early May according to the most dire forecast. And hospitals would need 565 ventilators to treat for critically ill patients, which is more than five times what the state has in its inventory now.
Secretary of Human Services Mike Smith said Thursday that his agency is preparing for that “worst-case scenario.”
“Hospitals have to be asked, have been asked, to plan to surge well beyond their existing capacity,” Smith said.
Smith announced Thursday that the state is planning for four additional hospital “surge” sites, in Essex, Rutland, Brattleboro and Windsor. Those sites are in addition to three surge sites already under construction in Burlington, Barre and St. Albans.
Smith said the sites will bring total surge capacity to 900 beds, and that the majority of those beds will be used for non-COVID-19 patients to create room in hospitals for people who have been infected by the new coronavirus.
"We really need people to continue to do their social distancing habits. We are seeing an impact early on. That impact can be magnified and improved, and we can see even greater reduction in the weeks ahead." — Michael Pieciak, Financial Regulation Commissioner
Under the "best-case" scenario forecast by the state’s modeling, Vermont has enough existing ICU and ventilator capacity to care for all the COVID-19 patients who would need it.
Pieciak said the most significant variable affecting COVID-19 numbers in the coming weeks is the extent to which Vermonters adhere to social distancing orders instituted by Gov. Phil Scott.
He said abiding by those guidelines appears to have contributed to a recent slowing in the growth rate of new COVID-19 infections.
“We really need people to continue to do their social distancing habits,” Pieciak said. “We are seeing an impact early on. That impact can be magnified and improved, and we can see even greater reduction in the weeks ahead.
For more about the model and what it means for the weeks ahead, head here.
