Who do Vermonters favor in the presidential race? How do Vermonters view the candidates for the key statewide offices? And what are the most important issues facing our state today?
Once again, VPR has partnered with The Castleton Polling Institute to conduct our latest in a series of polls of Vermonters. This latest poll was conducted from July 11 to 23, 2016. The poll interviewed people from around the state, calling both cell phones and land lines.
You can download the full results of this poll, including the datasets (in XLS format) and American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative Details (Appendix A), detailing the methodology, sampling error and survey instrument (i.e. the questions).
The VPR Polls are made possible by the VPR Journalism Fund.
Explore our coverage:
- Vermont Edition: Parsing The Results
- Majority Of Vermonters Have Seen Effects Of Opiate Addiction
- On Refugee Resettlement, Vermonters Are Divided Along Party Lines
- Lifelong Vermont Residents Less Supportive Of Refugee Resettlement
VPR POLL: OVERALL RESULTS
Note About Margins Of Error: From the poll methodology, "the total number of completed interviews is 637 (308 landline and 328 cell phone)" and "the margin of error is (+/-) 3.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level for data representing the entire sample." Please note that where results are broken down further, e.g. by age, gender, party, etc., the sample sizes are smaller and therefore the margins of error are greater. For example, the margin for the full results is 3.9 percent, however when you look at results by gender the margins of error increase to 5.2-5.8 percent. See Appendix A for full details.
What do you think is the most important problem facing the state of Vermont today?
The economy generally / jobs / cost of living 28%
Property tax 6%
Overall costs of education / school consolidation 3%
Health care 6%
Wages / leave / workplace issues 2%
Drugs 17%
Troubled politics / leadership 2%
Environmental issues / climate change / renewable energy 3%
Drinking water issues / contamination 0%
Other 24%
Don't know 7%
Total Respondents 637
How closely do you follow news about the upcoming elections?
Very closely 37%
Somewhat closely 38%
Not very much 19%
Not at all 5%
Don't know/refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
How likely are you to vote in the general election on Nov. 8, 2016? Would you say:
You are very likely 79%
Somewhat likely 8%
Not very likely 5%
Not at all likely 8%
Don't know 1%
Total Respondents 637
Have you already voted, through early voting or absentee voting, in the state-wide primary which is being held on Aug. 9, 2016?
Yes 7%
No 93%
Don't know/refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
How likely are you to vote in the state-wide primary being held on Aug. 9, 2016?
You are likely 50%
Somewhat likely 18%
Not very likely 12%
Not at all likely 18%
Don't know 2%
Total Respondents 592
If the Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were Clinton (D), Trump (R), or Johnson (L), who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton 39%
Donald Trump 17%
Gary Johnson 5%
Jill Stein 0%
Someone else 26%
Not sure 8%
Refused 5%
Total Respondents 637
Whom did you support in the 2016 Presidential primaries?
Clinton 8%
Sanders 53%
Trump 9%
Kasich 2%
Rubio 2%
Cruz 1%
Carson 1%
Someone else 2%
Don't remember 4%
Did not vote/did not support anyone 17%
Refused 2%
Total Respondents 637
If the U.S. Senate election were held today, and the candidates were Patrick Leahy, the Democrat, and Scott Milne, the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Patrick Leahy 62%
Scott Milne 23%
Other 1%
Don't know 11%
Refused 2%
Total Respondents 637
Aware: Have you heard of this individual or not? Yes / No / Don't know / Refused / Total Respondents
Phil Scott 86% / 13% / 0% / 1%/ 637
Bruce Lisman 61% / 37% / 1% / 1%/ 637
Sue Minter 63% / 36% / 0% / 1%/ 637
Matt Dunne 73% / 26% / 0% / 1%/ 637
Peter Galbraith 48% / 50% / 1% / 1%/ 637
H. Brooke Paige 8% / 91% / 1% / 1%/ 637
Bill Lee 22% / 77% / - / 1%/ 637
Randy Brock 55% / 43% / 0% / 1%/ 637
Kesha Ram 16% / 83% / 0% / 1%/ 637
Shap Smith 59% / 39% / 1% / 1%/ 637
David Zuckerman 58% / 41% / 1% / 1%/ 637
Louis Meyers 10% / 89% / 1% / 1%/ 637
Cris Ericson 13% / 86% / 1% / 1% / 637
(For graphs and easier-to-read formats, view and download the full results as HTM or XLS below.)
Favor: Is your opinion of this individual favorable or unfavorable? Very favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Very unfavorable / No opinion / Refused / Total Respondents
Phil Scott 26% / 32% / 8% / 5% / 27% / 1% / 556
Bruce Lisman 14% / 22% / 18% / 15% / 31% / 1% / 417
Sue Minter 22% / 36% / 7% / 6% / 27% / 2% / 439
Matt Dunne 16% / 34% / 10% / 6% / 34% / 1% / 487
Peter Galbraith 8% / 31% / 14% / 10% / 36% / 1% / 360
H. Brooke Paige 3% / 13% / 20% / 57% / 7% / 52
Bill Lee 6% / 19% / 9% / 11% / 54% / 1% / 140
Randy Brock 8% / 23% / 19% / 11% / 39% / 1% / 384
Kesha Ram 23% / 35% / 6% / 2% / 32% / 1% / 108
Shap Smith 23% / 28% / 9% / 10% / 29% / 1% / 405
David Zuckerman 17% / 25% / 8% / 9% / 38% / 2% / 366
Louis Meyers 15% / 8% / 1% / 75% / 2% / 50
Cris Ericson 19% / 9% / 8% / 62% / 2% / 80
(For graphs and easier-to-read formats, view and download the full results as XLS or HTM below.)
Do you expect your household's financial situation to improve, get worse, or remain the same over the next year?
Improve 24%
Remain the same 58%
Get worse 14%
Not sure 4%
Total Respondents 637
If you were to meet with an unfortunate health, auto or home crisis that led to an unexpected cost to you of $3,000, how confident are you that you could recover from the loss without a major change in your financial circumstances?
Very confident 36%
Somewhat confident 27%
Not too confident 13%
Not confident at all 23%
Not sure 1%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
How would you rate the state of Vermont for the following: Job opportunities
Excellent 2%
Good 25%
Just fair 43%
Poor 27%
Not sure/No opinion 3%
Total Respondents 637
How would you rate the state of Vermont for the following: Wages
Excellent 1%
Good 20%
Just fair 44%
Poor 31%
Not sure/No opinion 4%
Total Respondents 637
How would you rate the state of Vermont for the following: The quality of housing
Excellent 2%
Good 38%
Just fair 38%
Poor 17%
Not sure/No opinion 5%
Total Respondents 637
Would you say that housing in Vermont is generally very affordable, somewhat affordable, or not affordable?
Very affordable 2%
Somewhat affordable 50%
Not affordable 45%
Not sure/no opinion 2%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
In general, do you think that your community is welcoming or not to people who come from other places within the U.S.?
Welcoming to others 77%
Not welcoming to others 11%
It depends 7%
Not sure 4%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
Thinking about racial and ethnic diversity, would you consider your community to be a place that is welcoming to diversity?
Welcoming to others 69%
Not welcoming to others 18%
It depends 8%
Not sure 5%
Total Respondents 637
Would you characterize the issue of opiate addiction in Vermont as a major problem, a minor problem, or no problem at all?
Major problem 89%
Minor problem 8%
No problem 0%
Not sure 2%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
Have you or someone you know been personally affected by opiate addiction?
Yes 53%
No 47%
Not sure 0%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
If response is 'Yes': Do you personally know someone who has struggled with opiate addiction?
Yes 94%
No 6%
Total Respondents 314
(Update: We have clarified the relationship between the previous two questions to reflect the fact that the latter question was asked only to those who responded 'Yes' to the former.)
Would this person be...?
A casual acquaintance or someone at work? 19% selected, 81% not selected
A close friend or member of your family? 29% selected, 71% not selected
A member of your immediate family? 15% selected, 85% not selected
Total Respondents 637
Overall, do you think that refugee settlement in Vermont would likely have a positive or a negative impact on Vermont?
Positive impact 45%
Negative impact 35%
Neither positive nor negative 4%
Both positive and negative 3%
It depends 5%
Don't know / Refused 8%
Total Respondents 637
What sort of negative impact do you expect?
They take away from financial resources from veterans, homeless, and other domestic aid programs 18% selected, 82% not selected
Health reasons - they bring diseases 1% selected, 99% not selected
Safety - they are dangerous (citing Isis, terrorism, national security) 4% selected, 96% not selected
Religious / they are Muslim (without reference to terrorism) 1% selected, 99% not selected
Cultural - they do not assimilate / integrate well 5% selected, 95% not selected
Political - they vote as a bloc / concern about Sharia law 0% selected, 100% not selected
Over-tax local resources (i.e. schools) - we can't afford them 10% selected, 90% not selected
Democratic process - the decision to admit the refugees was not handled democratically 0% selected, 100% not selected
Total Respondents 637
What sort of positive impact do you expect?
They are skilled workers 9% selected, 91% not selected
They will start businesses 8% selected, 92% not selected
Increasing cultural diversity is good for community / makes Vermont communities better places to live 37% selected, 63% not selected
Broaden the tax base 3% selected, 97% not selected
Humanitarian issue / it's the right thing to do 7% selected, 93% not selected
Bringing in refugees will help in U.S. battle against terrorism 0% selected, 100% not selected
Would you support or oppose an effort to resettle refugees in your community?
Support 58%
Oppose 27%
It depends 8%
Not sure 6%
Refused 1%
Total Respondents 637
In general, do you favor or oppose raising the minimum wage in Vermont to $15 per hour?
Favor 71%
Oppose 20%
It depends 5%
Not sure 4%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
Regardless of the effect on personal finances of low income Vermonters, do you think that raising the minimum wage will improve economy?
Positive impact 51%
Negative impact 22%
Neither positive nor negative 11%
Both positive and negative 8%
It depends 2%
Don't know / Refused 6%
Total Respondents 637
With whom do you most agree?
Vermont needs an independent state ethics commission 65%
Vermont does not need an independent state ethics commission 22%
It depends (opinion does not neatly fit into either previous options) 2%
Not sure / No opinion 10%
Refused 1%
Total Respondents 637
Do you get the water at your home from a private well or from town water?
Well water 48%
Town water 51%
Not sure / Refused 1%
Total Respondents 637
Are you concerned with the quality of water coming into your home?
Very concerned 10%
Somewhat concerned 18%
Not concerned 72%
Not sure 0%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
Do you think education beyond high school is necessary, a good idea but not necessary, or neither necessary nor a good idea?
Necessary 54%
Good idea, but not necessary 44%
Neither necessary nor a good idea 1%
Not sure 0%
Refused 0%
Total Respondents 637
Do you think education beyond high school is affordable to most Vermonters?
Yes 11%
No 84%
Not sure 5%
Total Respondents 637
Whether or not you support the legalization of marijuana, what do you think is the best process for making the decision?
Legislative process 29%
Referendum 56%
Not sure 13%
Refused 1%
Total Respondents 637
Do you favor or oppose holding a non-binding ballot referendum in Vermont to gauge Vermonter's support for or opposition to legalizing marijuana for recreational use?
Favor non-binding referendum 73%
Oppose non-binding referendum 18%
Not sure 9%
Refused 1%
Total Respondents 637
FULL RESULTS FOR DOWNLOAD: FILES, APPENDICES & METHODOLOGY
