Plenty of people know a lot about Sen. Bernie Sanders' politics – they’ve been remarkably consistent over the years – but with Sanders kicking off his presidential run this week, there are plenty of other questions. How can Sanders beat Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton? How will Sanders’ Vermont roots influence the way voters think about him? Will Vermont’s close proximity to New Hampshire make a difference in Sanders’ efforts to win that state’s first-in-the-nation primary?
We asked some national political experts for their thoughts on Sanders’ run. Campaign strategist Joe Trippi headed up former Gov. Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign. Middlebury Political Science Professor Matthew Dickinson is an expert on presidential politics and has a blog called Presidential Power. Ken Rudin is a former NPR political reporter who now hosts a podcast called The Political Junkie.
Here’s what they had to say:
Vermont is a political asset for Sanders
For one thing, Dickinson says, Vermont’s proximity to New Hampshire will boost Sanders’ profile in the Granite State and make it easier for Sanders supporters in Vermont to cross the river and volunteer.
“It will help him in two ways,” Dickinson says. “One is, he’s going to get favorable news coverage in stations that are [broadcasting] from Vermont into New Hampshire. Second, he’s going to be able to run a very grassroots-based campaign on the cheap because New Hampshire’s next door. So, he’s going to be able to get his issues to activists over there.”
On a national scale, Trippi says people tend to like Vermont. The state was an asset for the 2004 Howard Dean campaign.
“The state has an incredibly strong and positive image in the rest of the country,” Trippi says. “It helped us tremendously for Howard Dean to be from Vermont.”
Some states have a more mixed reputation.
“I’m from California. I love the place, but there are a whole lot of people who think California is out there and on the fringe or something," Trippi says. "People don’t have that view of Vermont at all.”
Vermont’s reputation may be especially helpful in Iowa, another state vital to the early success of a campaign, Trippi says.
“Whether it’s Ben & Jerry’s and the cows on the ice cream, they [Iowans] have an image of Vermont being just like them because of the image that the state’s projected,” Trippi says.
Bernie Sanders doesn’t have to win the early primaries to be seen as a serious candidate
Much of the focus on Sanders’ legitimacy as a candidate has focused on whether or not he will win, and he does have to win a general election to make it to the White House. But that doesn’t mean he has to win the caucus in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire.
Political history buffs like Dickinson and Rudin are quick to point out that getting the most votes in the New Hampshire primary isn’t the only way for a candidate to get a boost from that state’s early voting.
“He just has to pull a Eugene McCarthy,” says Dickinson, “who did really well in New Hampshire in 1968 – enough to force Lyndon Johnson out of the race – even though McCarthy didn’t win the primary. If he does really well in New Hampshire, finishes a strong second, then suddenly the Hillary juggernaut is upset and all bets are off.”
Trippi agrees.
“If you look at Iowa and New Hampshire right now and you ask any Democrat who’s going to win Iowa and New Hampshire, they all say Hillary Clinton,” he says. “If you ask them ‘OK, well, who’s the person that’s going to be second? Who’s going to be her challenger?’ That’s a big question mark right now. If Bernie Sanders is the answer to that question … then he’s going to move up, he’s going to get a lot more attention than he’s getting even now, and he’ll be the center of debates with her, et cetera.”
If Sanders doesn’t emerge as the clear alternative to Clinton, Trippi says, his chances could fade quickly.
Sanders’ chances are slim, but that doesn’t mean he’ll definitely lose
Sanders is widely seen as a long-shot candidate, largely because of his support for major advances to social programs in the U.S. as well as his advocacy for issues such as government-funded health care. Even with those views, though, Trippi says Sanders’ labels may be a bigger political obstacle than the policy ideas themselves.
“No matter where he is in articulating the issues,” Trippi says, “you look at the United States and a lot of people would ask: Would the country not just nominate, but put in the White House, somebody who has labeled himself in the past as a socialist? I mean just the label, some of the ways the label’s been applied to him, are things he’s going to have to get over with people.”
Rudin says Sanders isn’t likely to get many endorsements in the race because the Democratic establishment is so firmly behind Hillary Clinton. But Rudin and Dickinson both say Sanders’ clear articulation of his policy ideas may win over voters frustrated with Clinton, who has been dodging questions from the press until recently.
“The income inequality issues is the issue of the campaign,” Dickinson says. “Not just income inequality, but economic inequality in general. And do the extent that Bernie is authentic on this issue – and I think he is authentic – and also his policies seem viable; he’s got a shot, but even Bernie’s admitting this is a long shot at this stage.”
Dickinson says pulling off a win against all odds wouldn’t be atypical for Sanders, who won his Senate seat after popular Senator James Jeffords stepped down.
“Bernie has been a candidate of opportunity all his life,” Dickinson says. “Normally somebody who believes in what he says would have been dead in the water long ago, never would have gotten beyond mayor of Burlington. But he’s always been able to take advantage – you know, (Vermont Sen. James) Jeffords stepping down at an opportune time. And New Hampshire next door, I mean all the ducks are in a row for a long-shot candidacy. This is why, when people ask me why should Bernie run, I say ‘Well why not?’ He’s never going to get a better opportunity.”
