Every year, Zoë Keating, a Burlington-based cellist and composer, logs on to Vermont Health Connect in November to pick out a health insurance plan for her and her son.
It’s usually not a very complicated choice: the state only has two private insurers, and she just picks whichever premium is cheapest.
But this year, the options before Keating all feel impossible. The portal’s price comparison tool tells her the plan she pays $73 a month for this year could cost her $1,636 every month next year.
The deductible is also going up — to over $15,000. Keating keeps logging back on, hoping that the numbers, somehow, will be different.
“It's astonishing how much it costs,” she said.
Keating is among thousands of Vermonters, and millions of Americans, who receive enhanced tax credits to offset the cost of their Affordable Care Act health plans. Those subsidies are expiring at the end of the year, and negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Washington about whether to renew them are at a standstill.
Many Vermonters will still be eligible for some premium assistance, and the impact of expiring subsidies varies based on income. But estimates from the state’s commercial insurers, MVP and Blue Cross Blue Shield, suggest thousands in the state could drop coverage entirely as a consequence of the enhanced, COVID-era subsidies going away. That could be a problem for everyone: as healthier people risk going without insurance, a smaller, sicker pool will raise premiums across the board.
"It's astonishing how much it costs."Zoë Keating, of Burlington, on 2026 health insurance plans
Keating, for her part, said she’s not willing to skip insurance next year.
“I know more than most people the consequences of not having health insurance, because of my husband being diagnosed with an out-of-the-blue terminal illness,” she said.
The stress of expiring subsidies is hitting Hartford business owner Cortney Keene on two fronts: individually, and as an employer. Keene estimates the plan she and her husband rely on could cost just shy of $37,000 next year.
“It makes me sick to think about it,” she said.
Keene also has to decide what to do about the roughly 30 people who work for their company, Keene Perspectives, which offers therapeutic services to young children in the Upper Valley.
The company stopped offering health insurance directly when Keene realized her employees could get cheaper coverage through the ACA, she said. When they made the switch, Keene said she raised workers’ salaries and offered new benefits like parental leave and tuition reimbursements.
Now, she said she’s at a loss about what to do. The logistics of switching to employer-sponsored coverage at the last minute aside, there are also financial ramifications. Keene said she can’t imagine taking away the higher pay and benefits she now provides.
“I have two employees going on maternity leave in January and February, and there's not a chance I'll pull back that benefit for them,” she said.
But already, the expiring subsidies have cost her one recruit. A prospective employee backed out of a job offer last week, Keene said, after looking at the health care options on the exchange for next year.
“So we lost that we lost that employee, and that means a newly-diagnosed child with autism won’t get access to services,” she said.
In South Hero, Kelly Coffey works part-time jobs for a nonprofit and a bagel shop. Her wife is a house painter. They both get their insurance on the exchange, and their plan is set to go from $72 a month to $668 a month, she said.
Coffey has Type 2 diabetes, and said going without insurance isn’t an option. But paying for it, she said, will ironically strain her ability to do the things that help her manage her condition, like eating more nutritious food and going to the gym.
“That's something that also costs money,” she said.
