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Every week, Vermont Public's politics team provides a succinct breakdown of some of the biggest issues at the Statehouse.

Capitol Recap: Republicans — and some Democrats — seek to roll back Vermont's climate mandates

Two people sitting at the head of a white table with big windows behind them
Peter Hirschfeld
/
Vermont Public
Bennington County Rep. Kathleen James, left, and Washington County Sen. Anne Watson, center, both Democrats, chair the committees that will oversee energy legislation in the Statehouse this year. A major question facing lawmakers is whether to maintain the emissions-reduction mandates the Legislature enacted in 2020.

Nearly four years after Democratic lawmakers enacted some of the most aggressive emissions-reduction mandates in the nation, it’s unclear how, or even whether, elected officials will be able to honor their commitment.

The Global Warming Solutions Act was meant to force the state to reduce carbon pollution at rates that scientists say are necessary to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.

“Some state has got to stand up and demonstrate that cutting CO2 emissions drastically can be done,” the late Democratic Burlington Rep. Curt McCormack said during a floor vote on the legislation in 2020.

The bill established emissions-reductions milestones in 2025, 2030 and 2050, and potentially severe legal consequences if the state fails to meet them. As Democratic lawmakers head into the 2025 legislative session, however, their best hope at hitting the 2030 benchmark — a sweeping policy called the clean heat standard — is no longer a politically viable option. And Bennington Rep. Kathleen James, the Democratic chair of the House Committee on Energy and Digital Infrastructure, said there’s no obvious alternative waiting in the wings.

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“We’re going to have to find a path forward I think that has broad agreement, right?” James said this week. “And I think that predicting what’s going to happen on that, during the second week of the legislative session, that’s a fool’s errand."

No clear path ahead

The Public Utility Commission this week issued its long-awaited proposed rules for the clean heat standard, a first-in-the-nation policy that relies on clean energy credits to reduce the amount of fossil fuels that Vermonters use to heat their homes and businesses.

But that plan was dead on arrival even before the rules — and accompanying projected price impacts on heating fuels — were posted on the PUC website shortly before midnight Wednesday.

“I’m not a political genius,” Chittenden Rep. Jim Harrison, a Republican, said Wednesday. “But I think I can read the tea leaves enough to know that we are not going to pass something that potentially would dramatically increase heating fuel.”

The PUC said the cost of heating fuel would rise on the order of 58 cents per gallon by the end of the first 10 years of the program. Under the clean heat standard, those added energy costs would be used to expedite the decarbonization of Vermont’s heating sector, and help residents weatherize their homes and electrify their home-heating systems.

If a Democratic governor came to the Democratic Legislature and said we can’t meet these timelines without dislocating the economy, we would be open to that. And so we should be just as open with this administration.
Senate Majority Leader Kesha Ram Hinsdale

Many Democrats maintain that those added costs are a worthwhile investment that will reduce Vermonters’ heating bills over the long run. As Public Utility Commission Chair Ed McNamara told lawmakers Thursday, “If you have oil or propane, you’re likely to save money if you install a heat pump.”

But Republican Gov. Phil Scott strongly opposes the clean heat standard. And after a historic red wave in November, the GOP now has enough votes in the House and Senate to sustain his likely veto of the measure, no matter how many Democrats want to move forward with the plan.

A person in a dark suit standing in front of a podium
Peter Hirschfeld
/
Vermont Public
Gov. Phil Scott, seen here in the Vermont Senate last year, wants lawmakers to rescind a provision that would allow citizens to sue the state if it doesn't hit its emissions-reductions mandates.

“Based on the numbers that we have in the House and the Senate related to who has already agreed that they would never vote … for a clean heat standard … we don’t have the votes to pursue this,” said Windsor County Sen. Becca White, a Democrat. “That is devastating for me as an advocate of this policy for the past four years.”

Rethinking the Global Warming Solutions Act?

Achieving the level of emissions reductions needed to hit the 2030 mandates will require large-scale policy changes and substantial upfront investments in new energy technologies. The PUC, for example, pegged program costs for the clean heat standard at nearly $1 billion over the first decade of the program.

The overriding question for lawmakers now isn’t how they’re going to hit those targets, but whether to keep them in law and risk not meeting them. The statute contains a provision, unique to Vermont, that allows individuals or organizations to sue the state if it doesn’t hit the legal benchmarks. That “private right of action” could one day result in a judicial order that forces the Agency of Natural Resources to come up with a plan on its own to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The governor said conducting energy policy by administrative fiat could lead to unintended policy consequences. And he said it’s become clear that hitting those mandates by 2030, thereby avoiding any legal challenges, would require expenditures well beyond the means of the residents who would have to foot the bill.

A person in a gray suit and orange tie at a podium with microphones on it, surrounded by about a dozen people
Peter Hirschfeld
/
Vermont Public
St. Johnsbury Rep. Scott Beck, seen here at a press conference last year, will introduce legislation that would substantially roll back the Global Warming Solutions Act.

Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck will introduce legislation that would, at minimum, eliminate the threat of legal sanctions in existing statute.

“I think we need to determine a more realistic glide slope for our reduction of carbon in the heating sector that reflects the resources we have,” Beck said Thursday.

For Democratic lawmakers such as White, however, the mandates, and legal implications for noncompliance, are the only thing lending urgency to efforts to wean the state off fossil fuels, and help low- and moderate-income residents keep pace with a global energy transition.

“To pull back on our requirements, to not have a mechanism for citizens to demand action, would be a complete reversal from, I think, the type of leadership that we expect from Vermonters, which is to respond to the greatest existential threat of our time,” White said.

Other key Democrats say they’re similarly committed to the Global Warming Solutions Act, at least until the Legislature has new policies in place that ensure Vermont is on a path toward significant reductions in carbon pollution.

“I think we need to keep moving forward toward those goals,” said Washington County Sen. Anne Watson, the Democratic chair of the Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Energy. “I don’t want to be downshifting in terms of the rate at which we’re heading towards those requirements. Those are scientifically founded. And as a scientist, it’s important to me that we are incorporating the best science we can into our policies.”

Democrats are not a monolith on the issue of the Global Warming Solutions Act, however. And some prominent members of the party, including Senate Majority Leader Kesha Ram Hinsdale, say the statute has become an unnecessary yoke.

“We should have never put a gun to our own head,” Ram Hinsdale said this week. “And if a Democratic governor came to the Democratic Legislature and said we can’t meet these timelines without dislocating the economy, we would be open to that. And so we should be just as open with this administration."

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The Vermont Statehouse is often called the people’s house. I am your eyes and ears there. I keep a close eye on how legislation could affect your life; I also regularly speak to the people who write that legislation.
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