The Scott administration on Wednesday told members of the Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Energy that their best modeling predicts the state is on track to meet the first deadline for reducing greenhouse gas emissions — set by the Global Warming Solutions Act — in 2025.
But Jared Duval — who leads Energy Action Network and was appointed to the Vermont Climate Council to represent expertise in energy and data analysis, told lawmakers the picture the Scott administration is painting is far too rosy.
Passed in 2020, the landmark climate law commits the state to reducing emissions to 26% below 2005 levels by 2025. There are subsequent deadlines in 2030 and 2050:
- 40% below 1990 emissions levels by 2030
- 80% below 1990 emissions levels by 2050
Jane Lazorchak, who leads the Agency of Natural Resources’ Climate Office, which is responsible for tracking the state’s progress, called the report a promising indicator that Vermont is making good progress towards meeting its emissions target for 2025.
It was part of a larger study the Agency commissioned that looked at various ways Vermont could reduce emissions in the thermal sector to comply with the Global Warming Solutions Act.
"It does not ensure that we are on track to meet our 2025 emissions reductions,” Lazorchak said. “But I do think it’s a strong signal that the work that we are doing currently has a good chance and a good opportunity for us to be there.”
"It does not ensure that we are on track to meet our 2025 emissions reductions, but I do think it’s a strong signal that the work that we are doing currently has a good chance and a good opportunity for us to be there.”Jane Lazorchak, director of the Vermont Climate Office
But Duval, with the climate council, said the modeling the agency presented had some glaring shortcomings.
The agency’s model for this new “business as usual” scenario used data regarding fuel consumption published regularly by the Energy Information Administration.
But Duval, with the climate council, said the model should have been tested against state data available annually from the Joint Fiscal Office and Tax Department regarding fuel sales — and that it should consider historic emissions for the years that data is available for.
As Duval pointed out, the Agency's “business as usual” estimate for 2020 emissions was about 1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent below what was reported in the state's Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
“It raises major questions about the accuracy of the model and the appropriateness of using it to forecast future emissions levels,” Duval said.
He says the discrepancy between the emissions levels from Vermont's Greenhouse Gas Inventory from 2015-2020 and the emissions levels presented by ANR's model for the same period cast serious doubt on the agency's claim that Vermont is on track to meet its emissions reduction requirements for 2025.
He says adjusting the model could alter the projections for 2025 substantially, putting Vermont well behind when it comes to meeting its emissions deadline for that year.
The "business as usual" projections presented Wednesday represents a possible path forward for emissions, based on work Vermont is doing now, and the impacts of the pandemic era influx of federal funding. Duval said including the impacts of that funding and of some new regulatory programs — like the Advanced Clean Cars II rule, which requires 100% of new cars sold in the state be powered by electricity or hydrogen by 2035 — prematurely assumed their success at reducing emissions.
Lazorchak, with the climate office, said she stands by the model uncertainty and disagreement over this type of modeling are inevitable. However, she said, “We should be using real emissions data where and when we have it.”
She said the agency proceeded with this modeling approach because it was what the Climate Council called for.
“We’ve done our best to be really transparent in the data that we’re using and the development of that, and have set up systems and processes that are collaborative outside of state government, as checks and balances on the assumptions we’re making,” Lazorchak said.
The Global Warming Solutions Act requires the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to initiate rulemaking on new regulations to cut emissions if the state is not on track to meet its targets. The deadline for ANR to undertake rulemaking to meet the 2025 deadline is July 1, 2024.
And while the Greenhouse Gas Inventory — which tracks Vermont’s overall emissions — is the metric by which the state’s progress is tracked, regulators at ANR’s climate office say there’s a lag in the reporting time for the inventory of about two years. This means regulators won’t know for certain if Vermont met its targets until two and a half years after the deadline passes.
Because of this, the state’s Climate Action Plan and Climate Council directed the agency to contract for a more timely estimate of where the state stands.
The modeling presented Wednesday was compiled by Hinesburg-based Energy Futures Group and showed Vermont meeting its 2025 GWSA target, just barely, by about 1.5% — given current policies underway to reduce emissions. The same model showed the state missing its 2030 requirement by about 20%.
Responding to Duval's concerns, Lazorchak pointed to the fact that Vermont’s greenhouse gas inventory data is delayed by two years, largely due to federal requirements for how agricultural emissions — roughly 16% of Vermont’s overall emissions — are counted.
“It raises major questions about the accuracy of the model and the appropriateness of using it to forecast future emissions levels."Jared Duval, member of the Vermont Climate Council and executive director of Energy Action Network
But Duval pointed out that the bulk of Vermont’s emissions come from fossil transportation fuels and fossil heating fuels. He said that data is available for the year prior by the end of January.
“So for instance, we will know by the end of this month, from the Joint Fiscal Office, how much gasoline and diesel sales occurred in Vermont in 2023, and we’ll know from the Tax Department how much fossil heating fuels were sold in 2023,” Duval said, saying he’d like to see the agency fact check their projections against those figures.
At the hearing, Duval told lawmakers it was time for ANR to initiate rulemaking to create new regulations now that further reduce emissions. He cited recommendations in the state’s Climate Action Plan, including new performance standards for buildings and equipment and additional incentives and rebates for electric appliances and advanced wood heat.
Regarding the model, ANR Secretary Julie Moore said her staff will review Duval’s recommendation and consider an update.
“Absolutely we want to make sure we are making decisions based on the best available information and fully utilizing datasets that exist,” Moore said Wednesday afternoon.
But Moore said the rulemaking process can take years and that it’s likely already too late for ANR to take regulatory action that would change Vermont’s emissions dramatically in 2025. Additionally, she said the Climate Council made it clear that these sorts of policies are best hashed out in the Legislature — not by rulemaking.
She called on lawmakers to propose new policies to get Vermont on track for its 2030 emissions targets.
“I think we will be hard pressed if not impossible to get to 2030 without additional rules and regulations,” Moore said. “But I think there’s an obligation to have those public facing conversations about what we should — we are — working together to regulate, before the agency just dives into it.”
Neither the Climate Council nor the Legislature have so far put forward a comprehensive plan for how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector — which is Vermont’s largest source of emissions, though both had initially proposed joining the Transportation and Climate Initiative Program, a regional cap-and-trade program that would create revenue for policies that get more electric vehicles on the road. Lazorchak on Wednesday said the administration had been exploring a similar program, called the Western Climate Initiative.
The "business as usual" scenario debated Wednesday does not include emissions reductions in the heating sector (Vermont’s second-largest source of emissions) from a clean heat standard, which lawmakers gave preliminary approval to last year and will have to vote on again in 2025.
Gov. Phil Scott vetoed the policy, which Democratic and Progressive lawmakers narrowly overrode.
Speaking at a press conference following Gov. Phil Scott’s State of the State Address last week, Sen. President Pro Tem Phil Baruth told reporters he wants to see the administration — and Republican party — put forward more policy solutions for climate change, not just react to what democrat and progressive lawmakers propose.
“The governor, I think, so far, the signs are good. His people are more engaged with us than they usually are,” Baruth said. “But the Republican party writ large no longer does policy, really, on climate change … their position is, really, that our positions are wrong. And, you know, they’ll tell you why once we tell them what our positions are.”
"... to rely on [this modeling] as a basis for not moving forward with rulemaking is not a good choice for Vermonters, and opens us up to the risk of having Vermonters put forward a clear case that we are not meeting our Global Warming Solutions Act requirements.”Sen. Becca White, D-Windsor and co-chair of the Climate Caucus
This year, Democratic lawmakers have signaled a bill that would commit most large utilities in the state to buying 100% of their power from renewables by 2030 is a top priority for them in the emissions space.
The governor has not yet weighed in on whether he supports that policy, but signaled that affordability was top of mind for him in his State of the State Address last week.
One thing all parties in the hearing hosted by the Senate Natural Resource and Energy Committee Wednesday agreed on was that Vermont is nowhere near on track to comply with its emissions deadlines in 2030 and 2050, and implementing solutions in time to comply with the 2030 deadline will be a challenge.
Sen. Becca White, a Democrat from Windsor County co-chairs the Climate Caucus, said she was surprised Wednesday to hear administration officials ask for more leadership from lawmakers on climate policy.
“We have put forward many policy recommendations that we would be excited to have the administration work with us on. However, that has not been the relationship dynamic so far,” White said. “So if that is a change in the dynamic, that is extremely exciting.”
White said while she has great respect for everyone who works on climate policy in the administration, she wants to see more action.
“The modeling that we’ve seen doesn’t guarantee and should not be used as a predictor for our emissions reductions,” she said. “And to rely on that as a basis for not moving forward with rulemaking is not a good choice for Vermonters, and opens us up to the risk of having Vermonters put forward a clear case that we are not meeting our Global Warming Solutions Act requirements.”
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