What do Vermonters think about the coming election? What about renewable energy? Guns? Marijuana? School consolidation? The VPR Poll has some answers.
From Feb. 3 through Feb. 17, 2016, VPR and The Castleton Polling Institute put these questions – and quite a few more – to 895 people living in all of Vermont's 14 counties. In case you're wondering: Yes, Castleton called cell phones, too, not just land lines.
You can download the full results at the bottom of this page, and check VPR Poll's methodology, as well as the appendices & survey, to to learn more about the poll questions, methods and margins of error. And if you want the quick takeaways, look no further: 8 Things The VPR Poll Says About Vermonters
The VPR Poll was made possible by the VPR Journalism Fund.
THE VPR POLL: THE OVERALL RESULTS
Note about Margins of Error: Please note that for questions with the full sample size, 895 respondents, the sampling error is 3.27%. However, where the sample size is smaller, e.g. for demographics like gender, party, region, age, the sampling error is larger. For more information about the samples, margins and methodology see the documentation below.
Are you likely to choose the ballot for the Democratic primary or for the Republican primary?
Democratic 64.7%
Republican 20.2%
Other/Progressive 1.7%
Not sure 11.1%
Refused 2.2%
Total 100.0%
Total respondents 749
If the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor ...
Jeb Bush 7.7%
Chris Christie 2.4%
Marco Rubio 16.9%
John Kasich 10.0%
Ted Cruz 10.5%
Ben Carson 3.1%
Donald Trump 32.4%
Carly Fiorina 1.0%
Rick Santorum 0.6%
Someone else 3.3%
Not sure/Don't know 12.1%
Total 100.0%
Total respondents 151
If the Democratic Primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor...
Hilary Clinton 9.0%
Bernie Sanders 83.1%
Someone else 0.5%
Not sure/Don't know 7.4%
Total 100.0%
Total respondents 485
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Approve 52%
Disapprove 34%
Not sure/No opinion 13%
Refuse 1%
Total respondents 895
Note: The above results about the presidential candidates are based on responses from the entire survey, representing the general population. For results from those identifying as likely voters, download the full poll results and details below.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Peter Shumlin is handling his job as Governor of Vermont?
Approve 37%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure/No opinion 22%
Refuse 1%
Total respondents 895
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Leahy is handling his job as one of Vermont's U.S. senators?
Approve 65%
Disapprove 14%
Not sure/No opinion 20%
Refuse 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Peter Welch is handling his job representing Vermont in the U.S. House of Representatives?
Approve 59%
Disapprove 11%
Not sure/No opinion 29%
Refuse 1%
Total respondents 895
How closely have you followed news about the 2016 presidential election?
Very closely 37%
Somewhat closely 45%
Not too closely 13%
Not at all 4%
Total respondents 895
How likely are you to vote in the Vermont presidential primary election that will take place on March 1, Town Meeting Day?
Very likely 71%
Somewhat likely 13%
Not too likely 6%
Not likely at all 10%
Not sure/No opinion 1%
Total respondents 895
Are you likely to choose the ballot for the Democratic primary or for the Republican primary?
Democratic 65%
Republican 20%
Other/Progressive 2%
Not sure 11%
Refused 2%
Total respondents 767
Is your mind made up about who you will vote for in the presidential primary, or is it possible you might change your mind?
Mind made up 61%
Might change mind 36%
Don't know/Refused 3%
Total respondents 649
Looking ahead one year, do you expect your personal financial situation to get much better, get somewhat better, stay about the same, get somewhat worse, or get much worse?
Get much better 6%
Get somewhat better 27%
Stay about the same 55%
Get somewhat worse 8%
Get much worse 1%
Not sure/No opinion 2%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
How closely have you followed news about the 2016 Vermont governor's race?
Very closely 9%
Somewhat closely 25%
Not too closely 40%
Not at all 26%
Not sure/Don't know 0%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Of the two candidates running for the Democratic nomination for governor, which do you prefer?
Sue Minter 11%
Matt Dunne 19%
Someone else (specify) 0%
Neither 18%
Not sure/Don't know 51%
Refused 1%
Total respondents 895
Of the two candidates running for the Republican nomination for governor, which do you prefer?
Phil Scott 42%
Bruce Lisman 4%
Someone else (specify) 0%
Neither 13%
Not sure/Don't know 40%
Refused 1%
Total respondents 895
Do you know who you hope to see elected as Vermont's governor in November 2016?
Yes 29%
No 51%
Not sure/No opinion 20%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Who do you hope to see elected Vermont's governor in November 2016?
Sue Minter 12%
Matt Dunne 15%
Phil Scott 66%
Bruce Lisman 3%
Someone else (specify) 2%
Not sure/Don't know 1%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 292
What do you think should be done to address healthcare in Vermont? Should we...
Improve and continue with the Vermont Health Connect, the state health care system 20%
Move toward a single payer system like Medicare for all 33%
Discard the Vermont state exchange (Vermont Health Connect) and adopt the federal exchange 8%
Or something else (specify): 19%
Not sure/Don't know 19%
Refused 1%
Total respondents 895
Should Doctor Dynasaur – the low-cost or free health care coverage for children under 19 and pregnant women who qualify – be expanded to include everyone under age 27?
Yes 45%
No 40%
Not sure/No opinion 15%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you support or oppose passing a law in Vermont to legalize and regulate marijuana for recreational use?
Support legalization 55%
Oppose legalization 32%
Not sure/No opinion 13%
Refused 1%
Total respondents 895
How strongly do you support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use in Vermont?
Very strongly 47%
Somewhat strongly 42%
Not too strongly 10%
Not at all strongly 1%
Not sure/No opinion 0%
Total respondents 458
How strongly do you oppose the legalization of marijuana for recreational use in Vermont?
Very strongly 54%
Somewhat strongly 30%
Not too strongly 10%
Not at all strongly 4%
Not sure/No opinion 1%
Total respondents 316
Do you approve or disapprove of plans to develop underground power lines to bring electricity from Canada through Vermont?
Approve 42%
Disapprove 25%
Not sure/No opinion 33%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
How closely do you follow news about how solar fields and wind turbine locations are determined?
Very closely 12%
Closely 30%
Not very closely 41%
Not at all 17%
Don't know/Unsure 0%
Total respondents 895
Would you support the development of a large solar array in your community?
Yes 70%
No 18%
Not sure/Don't know 11%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Would you support the development of large wind-power turbines in your community?
Yes 56%
No 33%
Not sure/Don't know 11%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 894
Do you support, oppose, or have no opinion about the current method Vermont uses to approve the location of renewable energy sites?
Support 17%
Oppose 27%
Not sure/No opinion 57%
Total respondents 894
Would you support or oppose investing state tax revenue into developing more passenger rail service throughout Vermont?
Support 61%
Oppose 24%
It depends 3%
Not sure/No opinion 11%
Total respondents 895
In your opinion, is Vermont state government doing all it can to address climate change, is it doing too much, or is it not doing enough?
Doing all it can do 35%
Doing too much 9%
Not doing enough 39%
Not sure/No opinion 17%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
How familiar are you with Act 46? Are you...
Very familiar 13%
Somewhat familiar 44%
Not at all familiar 42%
Not sure/No opinion 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you generally support or oppose the state's efforts to encourage consolidation of Vermont's school districts?
Support 51%
Oppose 29%
It depends 6%
Not sure/No opinion 14%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you support or oppose limiting where someone is allowed to carry a firearm?
Support 58%
Oppose 32%
It Depends 5%
Not sure/No opinion 5%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you support or oppose requiring a waiting period on gun sales, meaning that the purchaser would have to wait a number of days from the time they purchase a gun until they are allowed to take it home?
Support 83%
Oppose 13%
It depends 3%
Not sure/No opinion 2%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
Do you support or oppose requiring background checks for all gun purchases, including private sales and sales at gun shows?
Support 89%
Oppose 9%
It depends 1%
Not sure/No opinion 1%
Refused 0%
Total respondents 895
FILES, APPENDICES & METHODOLOGY
- File #1: Overall Poll Results (XLS)
- File #2: Presidential campaign questions, with breakout of Likely Voters (XLS)
- File #3: Appendices: The poll's Transparency Initiative Details, Sampling Errors and the Survey Instrument
- File #4: Methodology Statement
We encourage you to download the data, do your own analysis and share your observations, too. If you have any questions or feedback about The VPR Poll please send us a message.
Correction 11:34 a.m.? An earlier version of this post misstated the sample size for the first three questions in the poll. The above text has been corrected.
