The Democratic battle for New York was feisty – and arguably a turning point. Now that it’s done, there’s potentially worrisome news for both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
For Sanders, it’s looking more like his candidacy will not end in victory, but with the unwanted second prize of having had an influence - more on that in a moment.
For Hillary, there’s optimism, up to a point. True, before New York, she lost seven out of the previous eight races. But overall, she’s done well in places with diverse populations and won by significant margins in delegate rich states like Ohio, Florida and now New York. The mix of delegate math – along with the tumultuous state of the GOP – give her an advantage.
Still, the relative success of the Sanders campaign suggests there will be a longer term battle for the soul of the Democratic party. After all, Bernie’s been such an unlikely candidate. He’s 74, a declared Democratic Socialist, and a long-time Independent.
His weakness may be he tends to strike one big note, economic unfairness. But that mantra has also had a powerful effect. Bernie’s supporters skew young and represent a new wave. They’re not just tired of politics as usual. They’re mistrustful of moderates, Democrats like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama – and Hillary Clinton, who’ve all, here and there, moved to the center.
Bernie’s captured the left. If all that I see in the media, including my Facebook page, is any indication, these voters are not a mood to warm to Hillary if or when Bernie bows out.
Making matters worse, polls show a majority of all voters don’t like Hillary, though the same polls show voters like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz even less.
Mind you, predictions are problematic. They speak of the future, but really reflect the present, which is always in some state of shift. But a reflection of today’s post-New York primary politics is – Hillary has a good chance of limping her way to become the 45th President of the United States. But the process may not be pretty – and long-term prospects may not be hopeful.
Because just looking at this from the perspective of Democrats, there are deep fault lines. Hillary Clinton’s task can’t only be about winning the presidency; but how to bring together a party that’s more openly divided than it’s been for a very long time.
